Has Trump Already Won?

President Biden's narrow path to victory

When we began writing this report about a month ago, our working title was: "Biden’s Path to Victory." However, an unprecedented assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump has profoundly altered the trajectory of the 2024 presidential race. Trump's survival, against odds, has energized his base and reshaped political dynamics across the spectrum.

This event has also compelled us to change our headline, seemingly predicting a Trump win. Yet, despite these events, our analysis remains unchanged. We still believe Biden has a narrow path to victory, and this path has not significantly shifted after recent developments.

We conducted interviews with several senior analysts, policy experts, and academicians and came to a clear conclusion: despite Trump's considerable momentum, it's not all over for Biden. “To win an election, you have to do …