Today’s report comes from weeks of conversations with law enforcement officials in Washington and across the country, as well as analysts and policy advisers who follow the sector closely. We wanted to understand how Axon — the company once known simply for the Taser — has transformed itself into the dominant technology platform in American policing. What follows is the story of that evolution, and the larger question of whether law enforcement is on the verge of its own “ChatGPT moment.”

On August 10, 2025, shares in Axon Enterprise reached $885.85, capping a run that multiplied the company’s market value tenfold in five years. For a business founded three decades ago as Taser International, the milestone marked more than just investor enthusiasm. It confirmed Axon’s transformation from a hardware supplier into the central software-and-data platform for US policing. Annual recurring revenue now exceeds $1.1 billion, up 34 per cent year on year, with more than $10 billion …

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Today, as geopolitical tensions escalate and economic power shifts eastward, we appear to be witnessing the early stages of a return to that more distributed currency system—where the answer to "which currency will dominate" becomes, simply: none of the above.

"We're entering an era where the dollar's exorbitant privilege can no longer be taken for granted," explains a senior advisor at one…

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The mechanism behind this deluge wasn't just clever marketing or efficient logistics; it was rooted in a little-noticed provision of U.S. trade law, Section 321 of the Tariff Act of 1930, commonly known as the "de minimis" rule. An obscure regulation, designed decades ago for administrative convenience, became the linchpin of a multibillion-dollar strategy that bypassed tariffs and fundamentally altered the competitive landscape of American retail.

Now, that linchpin has been remove…

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The Fall of a Silicon Valley Icon

Intel's troubles came to a head last October when it reported a staggering $16.6 billion quarterly loss—the largest in its 56-year history. This financial calamity was compounded by a 60% stock price collapse since Pat Gelsinger assumed the CEO role in February 2021, culminating in his forced departure in December.
"The burn rate became simply unsustainable," says a senior semiconductor analyst who requested anonymity. "Intel was spending billions on new fabs and R&D while its cash-generating businesses faced intense competitive pressure from all sides. It became a race against time that Gelsinger ultimately lost."

The company's manufacturing difficulties have been particularly damaging. While Intel once led the industry in process technology, it has fallen significantly behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). According to an industry official briefed on Intel's progress, its most advanced processes are yielding functional chips at rates below 10%, compared to TSMC's 30% for comparable technology.
"The yield gap is devastating to Intel's economics," explains a veteran semiconductor equipment executive. "At those rates, manufacturing costs become prohibitive regardless of government subsidies."

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Introduction

In the corridors of MicroStrategy's Virginia headquarters, software engineering has taken a back seat to financial engineering. The enterprise software company, once known for its business intelligence tools, has transformed itself into what industry observers call a "leveraged Bitcoin fund with a software subsidiary."

"We're looking at a novel form of regulatory arbitrage," says a former SEC enforcement director who requested anonymity due to ongoing matters. "The company appears to be operating as an unregistered investment company while using its software business as regulatory cover."

Michael Saylor, the company's founder and executive chairman, has overseen this transformation through a series of debt offerings and Bitcoin purc…

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Our August report accurately predicted the faster-than-expected cooling of inflation, culminating in the Federal Reserve's 0.5% rate cut in September. Most economists at this point were warning about the protracted battle against “sticky” inflation.

This precision underscores a critical insight: while the Fed and other economist have sophisticated models, they often overlook the movement of physical goods and its effect on inflation. We are afraid they are going to make the same mistake again. In this Report, we go behind the scenes to assess the impact of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike on economy, politics, and markets.

Inflation: A Primer

Before diving into the main story, it's important to recall the rollercoaster decade we’ve just experienced. Post-pandemic, the U.S. economy puzzled everyone—first with its unexpected strength, then…

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In our February analysis, we highlighted Apple's potentially surprising strategy and reported that the company was undervalued at $165, predicting a that the stock would hit $210 by the time of the WWDC and reaching $300 within 12 months.

The initial milestone has been achieved just as we predicted, and today's report goes into the roadmap towards the second target.

As we detailed previously, Apple's strategy hinges on leveraging existing models developed by other companies, with an emphasis on deployment and enhancing user experience. In this vein, Apple is focusing its efforts on controlling aspects of ecosystem that will drive the experience. As we had reported from unnamed resources, Apple had been building capacity for AI on the edge. This was confirmed with the announcement of Private Cloud Compute in June. While Apple is emphasizing privacy, we believe the bigger goal is in ensuring a lock-in of developers building AI apps for its ecosystem, lowering latency, and improving cost to serve.

For this report, we consulted a range of sources including former Apple employees, investors, and seasoned observers of the company.

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Key Highlights of the Apple's Strategy:

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This Report completes the trifecta of our initial reporting on the big-3 private logistics companies. We will complete this series with our final report on USPS in coming weeks, before we move to the topic of regional and niche players. Those looking for additional insights around parcel shipping would enjoy:

Brown No Longer: UPS Struggle for Relevance.

FedEx: Pursuing a Breakup.

With this report, we are lifting the kimono a little on one of the least understood but most reported logistics story: Amazon. Our key conclusions:

1. Amazon is built on the backs of Government Welfare and Subsidies, rather than innovation as is often reported. It is estimated in our Report that tax-payer subsidies contribute to 60 cents per FulFilment shipment and $1 per transportation shipment Amazon handles, resulting in a drag of roughly $10 to $12 billion. Even if half of these subsidies were to be removed, Amazon Retail wil…

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The numbers from UPS's latest quarterly release paint a stark picture of a company in decline. In the second quarter of 2024, UPS reported consolidated revenues of $21.8 billion, a 1.1% decrease from the same period in 2023. More alarmingly, the company's consolidated operating profit plummeted by 30.1% to $1.9 billion, with adjusted consolidated operating margin at 9.5%. Diluted earnings per share fell to $1.65, with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.79 representing a staggering 29.5% drop from $2.54 in the previous year.

Since 2017, UPS has faced a stagnant package profile. While its duopoly with FedEx in the US allowed UPS to grow yields above inflation for most of the last decade, this advantage has evap…

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Some dramatically claim when the Federal Reserve governors meet in September, they will be making making the decision on who wins the Presidential elections come November. Indeed, Trump and Vance have been questioning the Fed's authority to independently determine interest rates which drive much of the US and, perhaps, the world economy.

We will leave the politics aside for a moment, and talk about the second most important decision Federal Reserve will make this September: should it cut the interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points - or in an unlikely event, not at all.

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When the Federal Reserve governors meet this September, they will be grappling with an economic landscape that presents a complex mix of data points and trends. Until July, the U.S. economy had experienced 42 consecutive months of job growth, with unemployment near historic lows. This exceptional recovery, of course hides some undercurrents of weakness: wage growth has moderated, with average hourly earnings increasing by 4.4% year-over-year in July, down from the peak of 5.9% in March 2022. Jobless rate has started picking up, with more disaffected workers reentering the job market, rising to 4.3% in July compared to 3.9% in May. Yet, U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023, contrasting with the World Bank’s projection that global growth will slow to 2.1% for the year—the weakest in three decades outside of major crises. But nobody thought we’d go from 10% inflation to 2’s without a recession.

This economic “good news” complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. Labor productivity surged at a 3.7% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2023, marking the fastest pace since 2020, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened by 6.5% against a basket of major currencies over the past year. At the same time, the federal funds rate is currently at its highest level since 2001, and personal consumption expenditures inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, is running at 2.5%, down significantly from its peak of 7% in June 2022.

"This situation is highly unusual," confides a senior Fed economist, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Typically, we cut rates when the economy falters. But now, with 11.5 million job openings and wage growth at 4.4%, we're debating a move that could further accelerate an already heated economy."

Cue the Fed’s “fairness doctrine.” This new approach, championed by Jerome Powell’s Fed is introducing a new way of thinking about economy - not purely in terms of an economic balance between inflation and jobs, but fairness where a more political Fed pushes aims to create an opportunity for fair economic growth. If the term sounds more political than economic it is. Over the years as Fed has become more powerful, it has taken on more responsibilities traditionally held by political and elected bodies. Many at Fed and those with knowledge suggest that Fairness is at the core of its likely decision to start bringing rates down as soon as September, despite an upcoming election and and economy that doesn’t seem to need the rate cuts.

This unconventional approach, if pursued, would mark a significant departure from the Fed's actions over the past 18 months, during which it raised rates 11 times before pausing, moving from near-zero to the highest level in 22 years.

Echoes of the Past: Comparing Today's Economy to the 1970s

As we covered in our earlier Report, many question both the current strength and potential future weakness in the US economy. These economists believe the economy is built on a house of cards and Fed is deluding itself in thinking it can control an economy where borrowings now exceed its economic output.

Others remind us how asset bubbles are formed. “A rate cut in this climate could propel the S&P 500, already up 17% this year, to new heights, potentially inflating asset bubbles. It might spur a wave of corporate borrowing, adding to the $11.3 trillion of outstanding corporate debt. On the global stage, where the dollar remains the dominant reserve currency – accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves – any shift in U.S. interest rates sends shockwaves through international markets,” notes a senior analyst at a Wall Street bank. “It would be foolhardy to believe Fed can cut interest rates and markets wouldn’t react.”

Perhaps most concerning is the question of future resilience. By deploying rate cuts now, in a time of relative prosperity, the Fed risks depleting its arsenal to combat future economic downturns.

Practitioners dismiss these worries as academic, a word representing a lack of application. "Their [Fed] goal right now is to keep the soft landing going," observed Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives in a New York Times article. "So why risk tightening policy? Now the challenge is balancing risks." This sentiment captures the sentiment pervasive within the practitioners.

In a sharp rebuke to academics projecting a return to 1970s-style high inflation, practitioners argue that the economic landscape today is fundamentally different. A senior economist at the Boston Federal Reserve, who requested anonymity, remarked, "The economic landscape we navigate today shares little with the stagflation-triggering era of the 1970s. We're informed by decades of data and a fundamentally evolved economic structure that were absent in past crises. Unlike the 70’s when an oil embargo crippled the US economy, we now net exporters of energy in the US. At Fed, too, we are no longer working on a hunch and trying to come up with theories. Our decisions are data driven, and data tells us we are making the right and fair call." Data, of course. But - fairness again.

However, this evolving debate also highlights the risks associated with any policy decision, particularly one as consequential as a rate cut. Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, warned in a January speech, "Premature rate cuts could unleash a surge in demand that could initiate upward pressure on prices." These cuts that were previously suggested as early as March haven’t come so far as economy continues to surprise with its strength. Economy hasn’t done poorly in past few months, either. Rightly or wrongly, then, many question Fed impartiality in cutting rates so close to elections when economy seems to be doing fine on most measures.

In writing this Report, we had to explore why the Fed is contemplating such an unorthodox step and what it could mean for America's economic and political trajectory. Is Fed political if it makes the decision or apolitical by making a political decision in face of the heat it knows it would face? In an era where the Phillips Curve – the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation – seems to have broken down, the Fed's next move may well redefine the boundaries of monetary policy for a generation.

Time to Act

The contrast between these strong U.S. indicators and slower global growth is stark. The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.9% from July to September 2023, the strongest pace since 2021, defying earlier predictions of a recession due to the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes.

“While this growth has since been moderated, GDP growth rate has continued to surprise on the upside, puzzling many economists. The strength of economy has tested many theories. Of course, the current strength in economy shares that with past bubbles,” warns an economist who recently left Federal Reserve.

These numbers underscore the complexity of the economic puzzle that the Federal Reserve faces as it approaches its September meeting. “Traditional relationships between economic indicators appear to be shifting, challenging conventional models and complicating the Fed’s decision-making process,” the economist continues. “This is what’s so worrying about the current economic environment. While there are no obvious signs, these breakages suggest a larger underlying problem. In economy: everything is fine, till it isn’t.”

A senior economist at the Boston Federal Reserve, speaking on condition of anonymity dismisses these concerns. "Many were fearing Fed actions would trigger a recession. But our close cooperation with Treasury and timely intervention seems to have brought us close to a balanced economy.”

She explained, “The economic challenges we face today are vastly different from the stagflation era of the 1970s. Many academically minded economists learnt their economic lessons in the 70s, but I am afraid many of them have learnt the wrong lessons and started to question American economy a little. The bogies of welfare state, greed, speculation - these are just that, bogies. Given its diversity, US economy has a self healing quality and only needs small nudges from time to time. So long as these ‘nudges’ are timely, they don’t have to be drastic and can be reversed without resulting in catastrophic inflation or other long-term challenges."

This sentiment is widely shared within the Federal Reserve, where many view the current situation as the result of a deliberate and measured effort to steer the economy away from disaster. A former Federal Reserve economist, now leading a quantitative hedge fund, sees the potential rate cut in September as a defining moment: "This isn’t just another policy shift; it's Chair Jerome Powell’s chance to secure his legacy, much like former Fed Chairs Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan. Successfully navigating this transition could place him among the ranks of the greatest Fed Chairs in history.”

However, caution remains a central theme for others within the institution. Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, recently warned, "Premature rate cuts could unleash a surge in demand that could initiate upward pressure on prices." His caution reflects a deep-seated concern that even in a vastly different economic environment, the fundamental risks of inflation remain.

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While financial circles buzz about Jerome Powell's next move – a 25 or 50 basis point cut in September – we've uncovered a far larger concern. Through our extensive network of contacts in academia, think tanks, and corridors of power, we've tapped into a growing undercurrent of anxiety among leading economists.

"The market's fixation on rate cuts is dangerously short-sighted," warns a prominent economist at MIT. "We're seeing disturbing parallels to the economic conditions that preceded the stagflation of the 1970s."

Our in-depth discussions with experts from across the political spectrum have revealed a surprisi…

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This Report is based on extensive interviews with over 30 industry experts, including current and former Boeing executives, aerospace analysts, and PR specialists, revealing a company on the cusp of a significant reversal in fortunes. Most of the experts agree that after years of struggles, Boeing, a cornerstone of American aerospace engineering, is poised for a crucial turnaround under new leadership. These industry insiders believe that the company is worth 50-70% more than what it's being valued at due to negative sentiment and missteps, but a shift in leadership and reversal of some of the negatives such as conclusion of fixed price contracts, cleanup of inventory built during COVID, and a lifting of production limits should restore the company, at least in financial terms. The rest - restoring the discipline and culture …

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Rather than hastily pursuing the story, we've opted for a strategic pause, allowing us to collect valuable insights from our sources, particularly large customers who play a crucial role in the success of any major enterprise. During this period, we've diligently sought perspectives from our extensive network within the industry, analyst community, and political sphere.

The recent incident, which occurred on a Friday and resulted in widespread Blue Screen of Death (BSOD) issues for many CrowdStrike clients, has undeniably shaken the market. The company's stock has reacted as if facing a crisis on par with Boeing's 737 Max troubles, experiencing a sharp 20% decline since the event, compounding an already concerning 10% drop from recent highs.

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• Trump 2.0: China Actions

• As Biden Stumbles, Kamala Falls

• The Quest for a New Obama

For updates on the Broadcom-Zscaler and SentinelOne sale, stay tuned. We have learned from insiders that discussions, particularly with Broadcom, have intensified, but Jay is holding out for a higher price for his company. More to come!

Today, we are focusing on Netflix, uncovering significant overvaluation and the potential risks for investors. This piece is a result of a two-month long discussions with Netflix Executives, Analysts, Investors, and competitors. Two large hedge funds we spoke with are planning to take short positions as they believe the company is worth less…

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Key Findings:

• Revenue projected to decline starting in 2026

• Evidence of double-ordering by at least two of NVIDIA's top five customers

• Training needs expected to taper off within the next 18 months

• Buy side analysts not convinced in current valuation, and starting to cash out

While NVIDIA's present position is formidable, with Huang stating, "Our demand is greater than our supply," the long-term outlook is less certain. Insider discussions suggest that the company's near-term growth could peak by mid-2025…

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